Cost model
All-in inputs
Purchase price, grading fee, shipping, insurance, tax and selling fees are included in the calculation.
Feature
Grade Probability Distribution
Replace best-case guessing with a realistic grading probability model.
EV
Expected value before grading.
ROI
Profit after all costs.
Risk
Grade downside made visible.
Product preview
Static app snapshotGrade Probability Distribution inside the app
Based on the real ROI Calculator: card selection, cost inputs, probability sliders and result cards.
Kardive app
Grade Probability Distribution
Illustrative, non-interactive preview
The screen below is a static snapshot based on the real Kardive app. Buttons and controls are intentionally inactive on this marketing page.
Card Selection
Charmeleon
Hidden Fates Shiny Vault - SV7/SV94
Raw $16.58 - PSA 9 $73.69 - PSA 10 $115
Cost Inputs
Purchase price
$16.58
Grading fee
$20
Shipping
$15
Selling fee
13%
Grade distribution
100%PSA 1020%
PSA 950%
PSA 825%
7 or lower5%
Grade
High RiskPositive expected value, with downside still visible.
Expected Value
+$6.80
Break-Even
PSA 9
Total Cost
$56.58
Net Profit by Grade
PSA 10+$43.96
PSA 9+$7.77
PSA 8-$16.37
Key Insights
9 remains profitable
A 9 still produces positive net profit after all costs.
A 9 still produces positive net profit after all costs.
Shipping costs pressure margin
Fees materially reduce the grading upside.
Fees materially reduce the grading upside.
Decision engine
Grade Probability Distribution for serious Pokémon grading decisions.
Competing trackers often show price history or a simple grade spread. Kardive focuses on the actual decision: total cost, grade probability, expected value, break-even grade and downside risk. The preview reflects the real calculator blocks users interact with in the app.
Decision example
A positive PSA 10 result can still be high risk.
If PSA 9 is barely profitable and PSA 8 loses money, Kardive keeps that downside visible before the user pays grading and shipping fees.
Break-even gradeExpected valueRisk label
Grade risk
10 / 9 / 8 / 7-
The result shows what happens by bucket instead of hiding everything behind PSA 10 upside.
Expected value
Weighted EV
Probability distribution turns grade uncertainty into a decision metric.
Kardive rules
Protected math
Verdict, risk and limits are calculated consistently.
Why Kardive is different
Compared with price trackers and spreadsheets
| Decision area | Generic tracker | Spreadsheet | Kardive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main question | What is the card worth? | What does my formula say? | Should I grade, sell raw or wait? |
| Fees | Often excluded. | Manual and error-prone. | Built into every scenario and export. |
| Grade uncertainty | Best-grade focused. | Possible but custom. | Single grade and probability distribution modes. |
| Outcome | Price reference. | Static row. | Verdict, risk, insights and next actions. |
Workflow
ROI workflow
- 1Select the exact card.
- 2Review raw and graded market values.
- 3Enter cost assumptions or use saved defaults.
- 4Compare verdict, risk and profit by grade.
- 5Save, duplicate, export or monitor the card.
Use cases
Where this helps in the real app
Should I grade this card?
Compare raw value against PSA, CGC or BGS outcomes after every cost and fee.
What if my card gets a 9?
See whether the card survives a realistic fallback grade instead of relying on a 10.
Can I reuse this decision?
Save or duplicate the scenario to test new costs, a new grade distribution or another company later.
Two ways to estimate grade outcome
Users can choose a single target grade for a quick answer, or use probability distribution mode when they want expected value across several possible outcomes.
- Single target grade
- Probability distribution
- Bucket-specific results
- Expected value
Distribution stays mathematically valid
The UI keeps probabilities capped at 100 percent. Once the distribution is full, users can lower a bucket but cannot push the total above 100.
- 10 probability
- 9 probability
- 8 probability
- 7 or lower probability
Kardive uses the distribution
Expected value is the weighted sum of net profit by grade bucket. Expected ROI divides that value by total cost engaged, keeping downside grades visible.
- Weighted EV
- Weighted expected ROI
- Downside exposed
- Break-even remains separate
Why this matters
A card can look excellent in PSA 10 and still be a poor submission if the realistic outcome is closer to 8 or 9. Distribution mode makes that tradeoff visible.
How the pieces connect
From question to action.
Kardive turns market data and user assumptions into a grading decision users can revisit and improve.
ROI by grade bucket
Raw vs graded value
Break-even grade
Expected value
Risk level
Saved scenarios
Watchlists
Email alerts
Price history
Grading opportunities
Portfolio tracking
spreadsheet exports
FAQ
Common questions.
What is Grade Probability Distribution used for?
Grade Probability Distribution helps users move from Pokémon card research to a concrete grading decision. Model a realistic spread across 10, 9, 8 and 7 or lower outcomes instead of assuming every card hits the top grade.
Does Grade Probability Distribution use real Kardive data?
This page describes how the feature works in Kardive: card metadata, raw value, graded prices, user cost defaults, saved assumptions and plan-aware access where relevant.
How is Grade Probability Distribution different from a price tracker or spreadsheet?
A tracker usually answers what a card is worth, and a spreadsheet depends on manual formulas. Kardive connects the same context to grading-specific decisions: costs, grade outcomes, expected value, risk, saved workflows and plan-aware actions.
How does Grade Probability Distribution connect to the ROI calculator?
The feature either feeds the calculator, explains a calculator result, saves a calculator scenario or brings the user back when a card needs a fresh ROI check.
Is Grade Probability Distribution available on every plan?
Free and Pro access depends on the workflow. The public site sends people to login, while Kardive checks limits and Pro features inside the app.
Keep researching
Related Kardive pages
Ready to test your next grading decision?